我们在大流行方面在哪里，对后勤行业的期望是什么？
Few countries in the world have received the bulk of vaccines. Currently, 46% of the world population (and counting) has been fully inoculated with a Covid-19 vaccine, while another 12% has received at least one shot. Interesting to note that the top 10 countries have received 75% of all Covid-19 vaccines (China, US, India, Brazil, Japan, Germany, UK, France, Turkey and Italy).
Least vaccinated are the countries with low income. Countries in Africa have reported more than 6.6 million Covid-19 cases and nearly 153,979 fatalities, but the true extent of the pandemic is not known as testing rates are low. South Africa, with more than 3.2 million cases and 90,000 fatalities, is the worst affected country on the continent, according to official figures quoted from a BBC article. From the beginning of the pandemic, it was understood that Africa would have the hardest access to Covid-19 vaccines. As most vaccines are produced in Europe, the United States and Asia, it was evident that most of the vaccines would have to be shipped to Africa and Latin America. As of September, only 12% of Africa’s total population of 1.2 billion have been vaccinated.
Covax是加维（Gavi），CEPI，联合国儿童基金会（UNICEF）共同领导的全球倡议，并致力于以公平，透明和公平的方式获得安全有效的疫苗，以供190多个国家使用。Covax致力于确保参与者准备接受疫苗和采购的支持。Covax在2021年上半年分发3.3亿疫苗的野心在某种程度上缺少了目标，因为直到9月，他们仅提供了约2.3亿疫苗。他们最初的目标是到2021年底再提供11亿。
在试图实现目标的同时，由于印度血清研究所的出口限制，疫苗制造地点的扩大挑战以及由于某些新候选疫苗的监管批准而引起的时机问题。
由于获得足够的资金和疫苗供应的挑战，到2022年底之前最初的征服20亿剂量的野心已被修订到接近15亿。预计Covax将在下一个季度面临一些主要挑战，他们的交付能力对于与Covid-19的大流行作斗争至关重要。
完全接种疫苗和收到助推器的人
Only 20% of people in low- and lower-middle-income countries have received a first dose of the vaccine compared to over 75% in high- and upper-middle-income countries, according to a COVAX statement. One of the reasons, according to the statement, is that most vaccines have been bought up by wealthy nations, despite COVAX having secured more than USD 10 billion in funding, with agreements to purchase 4.5 billion vaccines. Consequently, we see the most vulnerable in the world still unvaccinated, while others in wealthy nations (Israel, Canada, France, Germany, etc) have started receiving booster vaccines.Who controls vaccine procurement? Has supply outpaced demand to meet global needs?
自疫苗生产开始十个月以来，关于世界上每个人如何获得接种疫苗的机会仍然存在歧义。由于全球范围内缺乏可用能力，公平分配，监管部门批准和复杂限制的困难以及资金挑战，疫苗生产面临挑战。此外，根据Covax供应预测，已经知道制造商优先考虑客户，许多卫生部都无法接受适当的剂量并将其管理给整个人群。
On top of having insufficient supply, local administration of vaccines will be challenging as not every country has the capacity to scale up vaccinations. The challenge is increased by the lack of peripheral equipment, cold chain capacity, healthcare workers and proper systems to keep track of who has been vaccinated. Often, we hear that “vaccines don’t save lives, vaccination does”, which applies in this case. It’s great that vaccines are being donated to Africa, but when random unpredicted supplies are sent their way, it’s difficult to absorb the new supply, as compared to when properly planned.
根据10月的报道，Covax的野心是在未来6个月内向非洲提供8亿剂剂量。但是，到目前为止，仅1.35亿次即将到来，不到17％。该地区只有大约2-4％的地区接种疫苗。
目前，尽管很少有机场可以接收，存储和分发COVID-19-19-nife-19，但我们看到了许多空运运输。问题是，第一批通往非洲的共同疫苗的海洋发货会准时到达，并且是否有基础设施在该地区大规模分配/管理它们？Covax在世界其他地区的分销工作并不是特别更好，因此与过去10个月相比，我们仍然要看到大部分分销时间在接下来的6个月中进行得更大。
采取更广泛的看法：Covid-19 vs.世界上最致命的大流行
The current Covid-19 pandemic took us by surprise and has, to a large extent, steered our lives for the past year and a half. But how does it compare to other pandemics in history? Learning from history, we can see that pandemics in the past have left quite an impact on how society is shaped. While quite significant for us at the moment, the Covid-19 pandemic ranks only 8th on the list of the biggest pandemics in history.Topping the list is the Black Death, with fatalities of 200 million in the 1300s; Plague of Justinian, 40 million in the 500s and Smallpox, which cost 56 million lives in the 1500s. Some of the most significant pandemics of the past century are the Spanish Flu, HIV/AIDS, and the Asian Flu. This illustrates that pandemics are constant, and it will question what we learn from Covid-19 and how we can prepare for the next one.
Logistics expectations - Global Trade Outlook
在2020年初大流行开始时，全球经济中的停滞迅速，全球贸易少了。但是，当我们看到刺激性资金被注入经济时，情况很快就恢复了，客户支出迅速开始增加。到2020年底，全球贸易正在爆炸，推动了需求和供应。这是物流行业受到广泛关注的时候，部分原因是它可以分发Covid-19疫苗。在短时间内向世界上每个人分发疫苗2次疫苗的能力面临一些明显的挑战。此外，全球商品需求的意外激增，包括由于19号大流行和苏伊士运河问题以及亚洲的生产问题，包括许多运营限制，造成了新的供应链问题。新利luck18网址同时，随着人们希望按时收到商品，需求继续增长。
The Covid-19 pandemic has also caused various operational issues. Warehouses are full as everybody is increasing stock levels; ocean containers are being held for longer at origin and destination to secure space capacity, and truck capacity is exhausted due to high demand, resulting in overloaded terminals with low productivity. Overloaded terminals with low productivity have caused delays in terminal activities, vessels sitting idle outside ports, and a lack of extra vessel capacity. All of this has resulted in huge delays in end-to-end logistics and a rise in transportation rates. As global demand is spiking and supply chains are running into major issues, we see a spike in inflation and an increase in prices for manufacturing parts and consumer goods that are putting additional pressure on the global economy.
Solving Covid-19 through collaboration to secure vaccine production and access for everybody
Understanding some of the vaccine production and distribution challenges, knowing that only 48% of the world is vaccinated as it stands today, we see that Covid-19 vaccines distribution will remain a multi-year concern, with current production and distribution forecast plans spanning well into 2022. It is also important to note that the current vaccination plans do not address those vaccinated in 2021 who may have to be re-vaccinated in 2022.
Given that the Covid-19 vaccines production and distribution are carried out sufficiently as forecasted, it will be interesting to see if the scale of distribution can be achieved, leveraging best practices and collaboration in the industry. Or will we still face fragmented distribution for low to middle-class societies? Once we start seeing better vaccination rates in the developing world compared to the developed world, we could expect stabilisation in the logistics sector and the social and economic situation.
In Copenhagen, Denmark, everybody has the opportunity to receive a vaccine, and for several months in late summer, there were no signs of the Covid-19 pandemic. We noticed a change as we entered the winter season, especially due to Omicron.
但是，我们拥有管理大流行并稳定情况的所有工具；我们很幸运地生活在一个有特权的疫苗接种社会中。在世界其他地区，Covid-19大流行仍然是一个现实，许多人试图通过协作，伙伴关系和团结来解决的挑战。
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